Climate Change

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We are deeply disturbed by the recent escalation of political assaults on scientists in general and on climate scientists in particular. All citizens should understand some basic scientific facts. There is always some uncertainty associated with scientific conclusions; science never absolutely proves anything. When someone says that society should wait until scientists are absolutely certain before taking any action, it is the same as saying society should never take action. For a problem as potentially catastrophic as climate change, taking no action poses a dangerous risk for our planet. 

Scientific conclusions derive from an understanding of basic laws supported by laboratory experiments, observations of nature, and mathematical and computer modeling. Like all human beings, scientists make mistakes, but the scientific process is designed to find and correct them. This process is inherently adversarial— scientists build reputations and gain recognition not only for supporting conventional wisdom, but even more so for demonstrating that the scientific consensus is wrong and that there is a better explanation. That's what Galileo, Pasteur, Darwin, and Einstein did. But when some conclusions have been thoroughly and deeply tested, questioned, and examined, they gain the status of "well-established theories" and are often spoken of as "facts." 

For instance, there is compelling scientific evidence that our planet is about 4.5bn years old (the theory of the origin of Earth), that our universe was born from a single event about 14bn years ago (the Big Bang theory), and that today's organisms evolved from ones living in the past (the theory of evolution). Even as these are overwhelmingly accepted by the scientific community, fame still awaits anyone who could show these theories to be wrong. Climate change now falls into this category: there is compelling, comprehensive, and consistent objective evidence that humans are changing the climate in ways that threaten our societies and the ecosystems on which we depend. 

Many recent assaults on climate science and, more disturbingly, on climate scientists by climate change deniers, are typically driven by special interests or dogma, not by an honest effort to provide an alternative theory that credibly satisfies the evidence. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other scientific assessments of climate change, which involve thousands of scientists producing massive and comprehensive reports, have, quite expectedly and normally, made some mistakes. When errors are pointed out, they are corrected.

There is nothing remotely identified in the recent events that changes the fundamental conclusions about climate change: 

(i) The planet is warming due to increased concentrations of heat-trapping gases in our atmosphere. A snowy winter in Washington does not alter this fact.

(ii) Most of the increase in the concentration of these gases over the last century is due to human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. 

(iii) Natural causes always play a role in changing Earth's climate, but are now being overwhelmed by human-induced changes. 

(iv) Warming the planet will cause many other climatic patterns to change at speeds unprecedented in modern times, including increasing rates of sea-level rise and alterations in the hydrologic cycle. Rising concentrations of carbon dioxide are making the oceans more acidic. 

(v) The combination of these complex climate changes threatens coastal communities and cities, our food and water supplies, marine and freshwater ecosystems, forests, high mountain environments, and far more. 

Much more can be, and has been, said by the world's scientific societies, national academies, and individuals, but these conclusions should be enough to indicate why scientists are concerned about what future generations will face from business- as-usual practices. We urge our policymakers and the public to move forward immediately to address the causes of climate change, including the unrestrained burning of fossil fuels. 

We also call for an end to McCarthy-like threats of criminal prosecution against our colleagues based on innuendo and guilt by association, the harassment of scientists by politicians seeking distractions to avoid taking action, and the outright lies being spread about them. Society has two choices: we can ignore the science and hide our heads in the sand and hope we are lucky, or we can act in the public interest to reduce the threat of global climate change quickly and substantively. 

The good news is that smart and effective actions are possible. But delay must not be an option. The signatories are all members of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences but are not speaking on its behalf or on behalf of their institutions: 

Adams, Robert McCormick, University of California, San Diego 
Amasino, Richard M, University of Wisconsin 
Anders, Edward, University of Chicago 
Anderson, David J, California Institute of Technology 
Anderson, Wyatt W, University of Georgia 
Anselin, Luc E, Arizona State University 
Arroyo, Mary Kalin, University of Chile 
Asfaw, Berhane, Rift Valley Research Service 
Ayala, Francisco J, University of California, Irvine 
Bax, Adriaan, National Institutes of Health 
Bebbington, Anthony J, University of Manchester 
Bell, Gordon, Microsoft Research 
Bennett, Michael V L, Albert Einstein College of Medicine 
Bennetzen, Jeffrey L, University of Georgia 
Berenbaum, May R, University of Illinois 
Berlin, Overton Brent, University of Georgia 
Bjorkman, Pamela J, California Institute of Technology 
Blackburn, Elizabeth, University of California, San Francisco 
Blamont, Jacques E, Centre National d' Etudes Spatiales 
Botchan, Michael R, University of California, Berkeley 
Boyer, John S, University of Delaware 
Boyle, Ed A, Massachusetts Institute of Technology 
Branton, Daniel, Harvard University 
Briggs, Steven P, University of California, San Diego 
Briggs, Winslow R, Carnegie Institution of Washington 
Brill, Winston J, Winston J. Brill and Associates 
Britten, Roy J, California Institute of Technology 
Broecker, Wallace S, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and Columbia University 
Brown, James H, University of New Mexico 
Brown, Patrick O, Stanford University School of Medicine 
Brunger, Axel T, Stanford University 
Cairns, Jr John, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University 
Canfield, Donald E, University of Southern Denmark 
Carpenter, Stephen R, University of Wisconsin 
Carrington, James C, Oregon State University 
Cashmore, Anthony R, University of Pennsylvania 
Castilla, Juan Carlos, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile 
Cazenave, Anny, Centre National d' Etudes Spatiales 
Chapin, III F, Stuart, University of Alaska 
Ciechanover, Aaron J, Technion-Israel Institute of Technology 
Clapham, David E, Harvard Medical School 
Clark, William C, Harvard University 
Clayton, Robert N, University of Chicago 
Coe, Michael D, Yale University 
Conwell, Esther M, University of Rochester 
Cowling, Ellis B, North Carolina State University 
Cowling, Richard M, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University 
Cox, Charles S, University of California, San Diego 
Croteau, Rodney B, Washington State University 
Crothers, Donald M, Yale University 
Crutzen, Paul J, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry 
Daily, Gretchen C, Stanford University 
Dalrymple, Brent G, Oregon State University 
Dangl, Jeffrey L, University of North Carolina 
Darst, Seth A, Rockefeller University 
Davies, David R, National Institutes of Health 
Davis, Margaret B, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis 
De Camilli, Pietro V, Yale University School of Medicine 
Dean, Caroline, John Innes Centre 
DeFries, Ruth S, Columbia University 
Deisenhofer, Johann, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center at Dallas 
Delmer, Deborah P, University of California, Davis 
DeLong, Edward F, Massachusetts Institute of Technology 
DeRosier, David J, Brandeis University 
Diener, Theodor O, University of Maryland 
Dirzo, Rodolfo, Stanford University 
Dixon, Jack E, Howard Hughes Medical Center 
Donoghue, Michael J, Yale University 
Doolittle, Russell F, University of California, San Diego 
Dunne, Thomas, University of California, Santa Barbara 
Ehrlich, Paul R, Stanford University 
Eisenstadt, Shmuel N, Hebrew University of Jerusalem 
Eisner, Thomas, Cornell University 
Emanuel, Kerry A, Massachusetts Institute of Technology 
Englander, Walter S, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine 
Ernst, W, G, Stanford University 
Falkowski, Paul G, Rutgers, State University of New Jersey 
Feher, George, University of California, San Diego 
Ferejohn, John A, Stanford University 
Fersht, Sir Alan, University of Cambridge 
Fischer, Edmond H, University of Washington 
Fischer, Robert, University of California, Berkeley 
Flannery, Kent V, University of Michigan 
Frank, Joachim, Columbia University 
Frey, Perry A, University of Wisconsin 
Fridovich, Irwin, Duke University Medical Center 
Frieden, Carl, Washington University School of Medicine 
Futuyma, Douglas J, Stony Brook University 
Gardner, Wilford R, University of California, Berkeley 
Garrett, Christopher J R, University of Victoria 
Gilbert, Walter, Harvard University 
Gleick, Peter H, Pacific Institute, Oakland 
Goldberg, Robert B, University of California, Los Angeles 
Goodenough, Ward H, University of Pennsylvania 
Goodman, Corey S, venBio, LLC 
Goodman, Morris, Wayne State University School of Medicine 
Greengard, Paul, Rockefeller University 
Hake, Sarah, Agricultural Research Service 
Hammel, Gene, University of California, Berkeley 
Hanson, Susan, Clark University 
Harrison, Stephen C, Harvard Medical School 
Hart, Stanley R, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution 
Hartl, Daniel L, Harvard University 
Haselkorn, Robert, University of Chicago 
Hawkes, Kristen, University of Utah 
Hayes, John M, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution 
Hille, Bertil, University of Washington 
Hökfelt, Tomas, Karolinska Institutet 
House, James S, University of Michigan 
Hout, Michael, University of California, Berkeley 
Hunten, Donald M, University of Arizona 
Izquierdo, Ivan A, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio Grande do Sul 
Jagendorf, André T, Cornell University 
Janzen, Daniel H, University of Pennsylvania 
Jeanloz, Raymond, University of California, Berkeley 
Jencks, Christopher S, Harvard University 
Jury, William A, University of California, Riverside 
Kaback, H Ronald, University of California, Los Angeles 
Kailath, Thomas, Stanford University 
Kay, Paul, International Computer Science Institute 
Kay, Steve A, University of California, San Diego 
Kennedy, Donald, Stanford University 
Kerr, Allen, University of Adelaide 
Kessler, Ronald C, Harvard Medical School 
Khush, Gurdev S, University of California, Davis 
Kieffer, Susan W, University of Illinois 
Kirch, Patrick V, University of California, Berkeley 
Kirk, Kent C, University of Wisconsin 
Kivelson, Margaret G, University of California, Los Angeles 
Klinman, Judith P, University of California, Berkeley 
Klug, Sir Aaron, Medical Research Council 
Knopoff, Leon, University of California, Los Angeles 
Kornberg, Sir Hans, Boston University 
Kutzbach, John E, University of Wisconsin 
Lagarias, J Clark, University of California, Davis 
Lambeck, Kurt, Australian National University 
Landy, Arthur, Brown University 
Langmuir, Charles H, Harvard University 
Larkins, Brian A, University of Arizona 
Le Pichon, Xavier T, College de France 
Lenski, Richard E, Michigan State University 
Leopold, Estella B, University of Washington 
Levin, Simon A, Princeton University 
Levitt, Michael, Stanford University School of Medicine 
Likens, Gene E, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies 
Lippincott-Schwartz, Jennifer, National Institutes of Health 
Lorand, Laszlo, Northwestern University 
Lovejoy, Owen C, Kent State University 
Lynch, Michael, Indiana University 
Mabogunje, Akin L, Foundation for Development and Environmental Initiatives 
Malone, Thomas F, North Carolina State University 
Manabe, Syukuro, Princeton University 
Marcus, Joyce, University of Michigan 
Massey, Douglas S, Princeton University 
McWilliams, Jim C, University of California, Los Angeles 
Medina, Ernesto, Venezuelan Institute for Scientific Research 
Melosh, Jay H, Purdue University 
Meltzer, David J, Southern Methodist University 
Michener, Charles D, University of Kansas 
Miles, Edward L, University of Washington 
Mooney, Harold A, Stanford University 
Moore, Peter B, Yale University 
Morel, Francois M M, Princeton University 
Mosley-Thompson, Ellen, Ohio State University 
Moss, Bernard, National Institutes of Health 
Munk, Walter H, University of California, San Diego 
Myers, Norman, University of Oxford 
Nair, Balakrish G, National Institute of Cholera and Enteric Diseases 
Nathans, Jeremy, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine 
Nester, Eugene W, University of Washington 
Nicoll, Roger A, University of California, San Francisco 
Novick, Richard P, New York University School of Medicine 
O'Connell, James F, University of Utah 
Olsen, Paul E, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University 
Opdyke, Neil D, University of Florida 
Oster, George F, University of California, Berkeley 
Ostrom, Elinor, Indiana University 
Pace, Norman R, University of Colorado 
Paine, Robert T, University of Washington 
Palmiter, Richard D, University of Washington School of Medicine 
Pedlosky, Joseph, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution 
Petsko, Gregory A, Brandeis University 
Pettengill, Gordon H, Massachusetts Institute of Technology 
Philander, George S, Princeton University 
Piperno, Dolores R, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute 
Pollard, Thomas D, Yale University 
Price Jr. Buford P, University of California, Berkeley 
Reichard, Peter A, Karolinska Institutet 
Reskin, Barbara F, University of Washington 
Ricklefs, Robert E, University of Missouri 
Rivest, Ronald L, Massachusetts Institute of Technology 
Roberts, John D, California Institute of Technology 
Romney, Kimball A, University of California, Irvine 
Rossmann, Michael G, Purdue University 
Russell, David W, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center of Dallas 
Rutter, William J, Synergenics, LLC 
Sabloff, Jeremy A, University of Pennsylvania Museum of Archeology and Anthropology 
Sagdeev, Roald Z, University of Maryland 
Sahlins, Marshall D, University of Chicago 
Salmond, Anne, University of Auckland 
Sanes, Joshua R, Harvard University 
Schekman, Randy, University of California, Berkeley 
Schellnhuber, John, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research 
Schindler, David W, University of Alberta 
Schmitt, Johanna, Brown University 
Schneider, Stephen H, Woods Institute for the Environment 
Schramm, Vern L, Albert Einstein College of Medicine 
Sederoff Ronald R, North Carolina State University 
Shatz, Carla J, Stanford University 
Sherman, Fred, University of Rochester Medical Center 
Sidman, Richard L, Harvard Medical School 
Sieh, Kerry, Nanyang Technological University 
Simons, Elwyn L, Duke University Lemur Center 
Singer, Burton H, Princeton University 
Singer, Maxine F, Carnegie Institution of Washington 
Skyrms, Brian, University of California, Irvine 
Sleep, Norman H, Stanford University 
Smith, Bruce D, Smithsonian Institution 
Snyder, Solomon H, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine 
Sokal, Robert R, Stony Brook University 
Spencer, Charles S, American Museum of Natural History 
Steitz, Thomas A, Yale University 
Strier, Karen B, University of Wisconsin 
Südhof, Thomas C, Stanford University School of Medicine 
Taylor, Susan S, University of California, San Diego 
Terborgh, John, Duke University 
Thomas, David Hurst, American Museum of Natural History 
Thompson, Lonnie G, Ohio State University 
Tjian, Robert T, Howard Hughes Medical Institute 
Turner, Monica G, University of Wisconsin 
Uyeda, Seiya, Tokai University 
Valentine, James W, University of California, Berkeley 
Valentine, Joan Selverstone, University of California, Los Angeles 
Van Etten, James L, University of Nebraska 
Van Holde, Kensal E, Oregon State University 
Vaughan, Martha, National Institutes of Health 
Verba Sidney, Harvard University 
Von Hippel, Peter H, University of Oregon 
Wake, David B, University of California, Berkeley 
Walker, Alan, Pennsylvania State University 
Walker John E, Medical Research Council 
Watson, Bruce E, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute 
Watson, Patty Jo, Washington University, St. Louis 
Weigel, Detlef, Max Planck Institute for Developmental Biology 
Wessler, Susan R, University of Georgia 
West-Eberhard, Mary Jane, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute 
White, Tim D, University of California, Berkeley 
Wilson, William Julius, Harvard University 
Wolfenden, Richard V, University of North Carolina 
Wood, John A, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics 
Woodwell, George M, Woods Hole Research Center 
Wright, Jr Herbert E, University of Minnesota 
Wu, Carl, National Institutes of Health 
Wunsch, Carl, Massachusetts Institute of Technology 
Zoback, Mary Lou, Risk Management Solutions, Inc  

• • April 7th, 2010: Colorado State University forecasters predict an "above-average" hurricane season1
  • Dates: June 1 - November 30,2010 2
  • Location: The Atlantic Basin 3
  • Also known as: Hurricane Season 2010
  • Hurricane Movie: Written and directed by Billy Ray, the movie "Hurricane Season" will premier early in 2010. The Universal Pictures film tells the true story of a group of high school athletes in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.4
  • Naming Hurricanes: Tropical depressions are referred to by numbers. They are given names if they become tropical storms. If a tropical storm turns into a hurricane, the hurricane has the same name as the tropical storm.5

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• The 2010 Hurricane Season in the Atlantic Oceanwill begin on June 1, 2010, and end on November 30, 2010. Atlantic hurricanes affect the eastern and Gulf coasts of the U.S. and the Caribbeannations. Those with interests in hurricane-prone areas must heed federal and state advice on preparedness, the season in general, and each specific storm in the season.
• Latest 2010 Hurricane Forecast Predictions An Above-Average Hurricane Season:
  • On April 7, 2010, Colorado State University issued its annual report on the year's hurricane forecast predictions.6 University forecasters William Gray and Phil Klotzbach each stated that El Nino conditions will likely dissipate by summer. In addition they believe that the warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures will not drop and will remain at the current temperatures. These temperatures have reportedly been much warmer than usual.7Because of this phenomenon, Gray and Klotzbach indicate that the 2010 hurricane season will be above-average. Specifically, they said that the warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures will "[lead] to favorable conditions for hurricanes to develop and intensify."8

  
  

  Eight Major Hurricanes Expected
  • Colorado State University's forecasters, Gray and Klotzbach, have also reported that eight hurricanes are expected for the 2010 season.9 Four of the season's hurricanes are expected to strengthen and become major hurricanes. This means that these four, if they do in fact become major hurricanes, would ultimately receive a rating of at least a category 3 storm.10 Category 3 storms are defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale. The Saffir-Simpson scale indicates that such a storm must have winds of at least 111mph; and that these winds be sustained for a period of time.

  
  

  15 Named Storms in Total
  • Including these predicted eight major storms for 2010, Gray and Klotzbach have reason to believe there will be a total of 15 named storms.11 Because the eight are included in this number, this would mean that seven of the storms during 2010 will be large enough to be officially named and yet not large enough to be considered a major hurricane. These seven additional storms, then, would each be rated at a level of category 2 or below if Gray and Klotzbach's predictions turn out to be correct.12
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• Hurricane Information The 2009 hurricane season was a relatively mild one for the United States, with only one hurricane and one tropical storm coming ashore. The position of El Nino near the South American coast and cool Atlantic waters inhibited storm growth. We cannot, however, count on the 2010 hurricane season being so uneventful. If El Nino draws away from the South American coast causing warmer waters in the Atlantic Ocean, conditions will be much more favorable to hurricane development.

   

  
  For individuals in the paths of potential hurricanes, the keys to minimizing deaths and property damage are preparedness and heeding the instructions local officials. If a hurricane actually threatens your area, keeping current on the latest forecasts for the storm's path and preparing to evacuate is essential. This 2010 Hurricane Season page will follow the 2010 season from preparedness, throughout the season, and in the aftermath, offering up-to-date information and resources to keep you fully informed.

• Early Predictions for 2010 Huricane Season As we move further into the year 2010, hurricane predictors are turning their attention to the 2010 hurricane season. While the utility of long-range hurricane forecasts is debatable, weather experts continue to publish them.

   

  
  At the University of Miami, Professor of Meteorology Ben Kirtman is looking into the relationship between the positioning of El Nino and the severity of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. According to Kirtman, in 2009 El Nino was located just offshore of the South Ameircan coast, which led to a mild hurricane season. In contrast, under Kirtman's theory, if El Nino moves furher off the South American coast then it will not protect the U.S. coastlines and may support the formation of more and stronger storms. 13

  
  One of the most eagerly anticipated forecasts comes from Dr. William Gray and Dr. Phillip Klotzbach ofColorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project. Issued on December 9, 2009, their initial forecast calls for a busier 2010 season than in 2009. 14 For the first time, they are predicting a range in the numbers of storms rather than a single number. They expect 11 – 16 named storms, 6 – 8 hurricanes, and 3 – 5 major hurricanes. 15 On April 7, 2010, June 2, 2010, and August 4, 2010, the CSU team will adjust this long-range forecast as the weather conditions become clearer. 16 In their early forecast for 2009, Drs. Gray and Klotzbach over-estimated actual the number of hurricanes that formed. 17

  Accuweather.com released its early hurricane season forecast on March 12, 2010. According to Chief Long-Range Meteorologist and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, the 2010 hurricane season will be busier than the 2009 season. Bastardi predicts that the 2010 season will bring 15 tropical storms and 5 hurricanes. He expects 2 or 3 hurricanes to make major landfall in the U.S. The Accuweather.com forecast is based on a weakening El Nino, warmer ocean temperatures, weakening trade winds, and higher humidity levels than in 2009. 18

  
  NOAA will issue its initial forecast for the 2010 season on May of 2010. 19

• 2010 Hurricane Names
  1. Hurricane Alex
  2. Hurricane Bonnie
  3. Hurricane Colin
  4. Hurricane Danielle
  5. Hurricane Earl
  6. Hurricane Fiona
  7. Hurricane Gaston
  8. Hurricane Hermine
  9. Hurricane Igo
  10. Hurricane Julia
• Earlier Warnings Issued This Year The U.S. National Hurricane Center will announce storm watches and warnings 12 hours earlier than in previous hurricane seasons. The earlier lead time will give those living in coastal areas more time to prepare and evacuate. Officials can give more advance warnings and watches because of advances in tracking storms and forecasting their projected paths. 20
• Looking Back to 2009 The 2009 hurricane season for the Atlantic Basic will close on November 30, 2009. There were two tropical depressions, six tropical storms, and three hurricanes. The hurricanes were Hurricane Bill (active Aug. 15-24), Hurricane Fred (active Sept. 7-12), and Hurricane Ida (active Nov. 4-9). 21 The only two storms to strike the United States were Tropical Storm Claudette and Hurricane Ida. 22

   

  
  The mild season can be attributed to El Nino conditions over the Pacific Ocean. 23 El Nino produces warm Pacific waters and upper level winds that discourage conditions favorable to hurricane formation. 24 Cooler waters in the Atlantic Ocean also inhibited hurricane formation. 25 The 2009 season was the mildest on record since 1997. 26

  
  The potential danger of a mild hurricane season is that people in storm-prone areas may become complacent because they expect the next season to be just as uneventful. Hurricanes depend on weather conditions both near and far from where the storms hit. Because weather conditions will continue to change constantly, the immediate past hurricane record cannot be relied upon as a prediction for the next season.27

• Prior Incidents Although hurricane forecasting is becoming more accurate, there is no computer model or formula to tell how many hurricanes will strike land during a particular season and how many of those which make landfall will be severe. For example, the 2004 season was devastating, with four severe hurricanes striking the U.S. causing loss of life and major property damage. In contrast, the 2009 season was relatively uneventful. The deadliest hurricane on record is the storm that struck and destroyed Galveston in 1901.Hurricane Katrina was the costliest hurricane, causing over $81 billion in damages.

   

  
  Loss of life is the primary concern when a hurricane strikes. The death toll from a hurricane season depends on how many strong storms made landfall, the vulnerability of the affected area, and the level of preparedness. An estimated 750 individuals died during the 2008 hurricane season. 28 Pre-positioned medical supplies allow the injured to be treated more quickly when a hurricane is over. Preparedness and early response reduce the severity of injuries and the likelihood of fatalities. 29

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American politics

Journalistic malpractice on global warming

• Feb 22nd 2010, 21:12 by M.S.

IN RESPONSE to last week's climate-change post, commenter "So..." said

Rather than 'taking a stance', newspapers should do [a] better job of describing the nuances of scientific findings. I know I'm being delusional, though. I mean, how many science/engineering graduates go into journalism?

Good point. For example, a week ago Phil Jones, the director of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, gave an interview to the BBC that was widely described as a debacle. The main reason was that the BBC reporter asked Mr Jones whether he would concede that global warming since 1995 has not been statistically significant. Mr Jones replied: "Yes, but only just," and went on to note that there was a measured global warming of 0.12°C per decade since then, and that it tends to be harder to get statistical significance out of shorter time samples.

This led to a Daily Mail headline reading: "Climategate U-turn as scientist at centre of row admits: There has been no global warming since 1995."

Since I've advocated a more explicit use of the word "lie", I'll go ahead and follow my own advice: that Daily Mail headline is a lie. Phil Jones did not say there had been no global warming since 1995; he said the opposite. He said the world had been warming at 0.12°C per decade since 1995. However, over that time frame, he could not quite rule out at the traditional 95% confidence level that the warming since 1995 had not been a random fluke.

Anyone who has even a passing high-school familiarity with statistics should understand the difference between these two statements. At a longer time interval, say 30 or 50 or 100 years, Mr Jones could obviously demonstrate that global warming is a statistically significant trend. In the interview he stated that the warming since 1975 is statistically significant. Everyone, even climate-change sceptics, agrees that the earth has experienced a warming trend since the late 19th century. But if you take any short sample out of that trend (say, 1930-45 or 1960-75), you might not be able to guarantee that the particular warming observed in those years was not a statistical fluke. This is a simple truth about statistics: if you measure just ten children, the relationship between age and height might be a fluke. But obviously the fact remains that older children tend to be taller than younger ones, and if you measure 100 of them, you'll find the relationship quite statistically significant indeed.

What's truly infuriating about this episode of journalistic malpractice is that, once again, it illustrates the reasons why the East Anglia scientists adopted an adversarial attitude towards information management with regard to outsiders and the media. They were afraid that any data they allowed to be characterised by non-climate scientists would be vulnerable to propagandistic distortion. And they were right.

This video, recommended by conservative blogger Charles Johnson, provides a very good illustration and explanation of the "statistical significance" issue and the Daily Mail's scientific illiteracy.

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National Science Foundation 
Press Release, March 4th 2010

Thawing by Climate Change of the Subsea Permafrost Layer May Release
Vast Stores of Underlying Seabed Methane & Trigger Abrupt Global Heating

A section of the Arctic Ocean seafloor that holds vast stores of frozen methane is showing signs of instability and widespread venting of the powerful greenhouse gas, according to the findings of an international research team led by University of Alaska Fairbanks scientists Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov.

The research results, published in the March 5th 2010 edition of the journal Science, show that the permafrost under the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, long thought to be an impermeable barrier sealing in methane, is perforated and is starting to leak large amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Release of even a fraction of the methane stored in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming.

"The amount of methane currently coming out of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is comparable to the amount coming out of the entire world's oceans," said Shakhova, a researcher at UAF's International Arctic Research Center. "Subsea permafrost is losing its ability to be an impermeable cap."

Methane is a greenhouse gas more than 30 times more potent than carbon dioxide. It is released from previously frozen soils in two ways. When the organic material (which contains carbon) stored in permafrost thaws, it begins to decompose and, under anaerobic conditions, gradually releases methane. Methane can also be stored in the seabed as methane gas or methane hydrates and then released as subsea permafrost thaws. These releases can be larger and more abrupt than those that result from decomposition.

Space-filling model showing the chemical structure of methane, CH4. The size of the central carbon and four hydrogen atoms is determined by radius, and their relative positions faithfully reproduce the structure of the molecule. Methane is the 2nd most significant greenhouse gas.Courtesy, www.globalwarmingart.com

The East Siberian Arctic Shelf is a methane-rich area that encompasses more than 2 million square kilometers of seafloor in the Arctic Ocean. It is more than three times as large as the nearby Siberian wetlands, which have been considered the primary Northern Hemisphere source of atmospheric methane. Shakhova's research results show that the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is already a significant methane source, releasing 7 teragrams of methane yearly, which is as much as is emitted from the rest of the ocean. A teragram is equal to about 1.1 million tons. She states: 

Our concern is that the subsea permafrost has been showing signs of destabilization already...If it further destabilizes, the methane emissions may not be teragrams, it would be significantly larger.

Shakhova notes that the Earth's geological record indicates that atmospheric methane concentrations have varied between about 0.3 to 0.4 parts per million (ppm) during cold periods to 0.6 to 0.7 ppm during warm periods. Current average methane concentrations in the Arctic average about 1.85 ppm, the highest in 400,000 years, she said. Concentrations above the East Siberian Arctic Shelf are even higher.

The East Siberian Arctic Shelf is a relative frontier in methane studies. The shelf is shallow, 50 meters (164 feet) or less in depth, which means it has been alternately submerged or terrestrial, depending on sea levels throughout Earth's history. During the Earth's coldest periods, it is a frozen arctic coastal plain, and does not release methane. As the Earth warms and sea level rises, it is inundated with seawater, 12-15 degrees warmer than the average air temperature. "It was thought that seawater kept the East Siberian Arctic Shelf permafrost frozen," Shakhova said. "Nobody considered this huge area."

This study is a testament to sustained, careful observations and to international cooperation in research.The Arctic is a difficult place to get to and to work in, but it is important that we do so in order to understand its role in global climate and its response and contribution to ongoing environmental change. It is important to understand the size of the reservoir--the amount of trapped methane that potentially could be released--as well as the processes that have kept it "trapped" and those that control the release. Work like this helps us to understand and document these processes.
- H.Edmonds, NSF

Earlier studies in Siberia focused on methane escaping from thawing terrestrial permafrost. Semiletov's work during the 1990s showed, among other things, that the amount of methane being emitted from terrestrial sources decreased at higher latitudes. But those studies stopped at the coast. Starting in the fall of 2003, Shakhova, Semiletov and the rest of their team took the studies offshore. From 2003 through 2008, they took annual research cruises throughout the shelf and sampled seawater at various depths and the air 10 meters above the ocean. In September 2006, they flew a helicopter over the same area, taking air samples at up to 2,000 meters (6,562 feet) in the atmosphere. In April 2007, they conducted a winter expedition on the sea ice.

They found that more than 80% of the deep water and more than 50% of surface water had methane levels more than eight times that of normal seawater. In some areas, the saturation levels reached more than 250 times that of background levels in the summer and 1,400 times higher in the winter. They found corresponding results in the air directly above the ocean surface. Methane levels were elevated overall and the seascape was dotted with more than 100 hotspots. This, combined with winter expedition results that found methane gas trapped under and in the sea ice, showed the team that the methane was not only being dissolved in the water, it was bubbling out into the atmosphere.

These findings were further confirmed when Shakhova and her colleagues sampled methane levels at higher elevations. Methane levels throughout the Arctic are usually 8 to 10% higher than the global baseline. When they flew over the shelf, they found methane at levels another 5 to 10% higher than the already elevated Arctic levels.

The East Siberian Arctic Shelf, in addition to holding large stores of frozen methane, is more of a concern because it is so shallow. In deep water, methane gas oxidizes into carbon dioxide before it reaches the surface. In the shallows of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, methane simply doesn't have enough time to oxidize, which means more of it escapes into the atmosphere. That, combined with the sheer amount of methane in the region, could add a previously uncalculated variable to climate models.

"The release to the atmosphere of only one percent of the methane assumed to be stored in shallow hydrate deposits might alter the current atmospheric burden of methane up to 3 to 4 times," Shakhova said. "The climatic consequences of this are hard to predict." Shakhova, Semiletov and collaborators from 12 institutions in five countries plan to continue their studies in the region, tracking the source of the methane emissions and drilling into the seafloor in an effort to estimate how much methane is stored there.

Shakhova and Semiletov hold joint appointments with the Pacific Oceanological Institute, part of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Their collaborators on this paper include Anatoly Salyuk, Vladimir Joussupov and Denis Kosmach, all of the Pacific Oceanological Institute, and Orjan Gustafsson of Stockholm University.